{"id":750,"date":"2026-07-29T18:02:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T18:02:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/?p=750"},"modified":"2026-07-29T18:02:10","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T18:02:10","slug":"july-monthly-expiry-2026-bulls-regain-momentum-but-the-biggest-test-is-still-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/?p=750","title":{"rendered":"July Monthly Expiry 2026: Bulls Regain Momentum, But the Biggest Test Is Still Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The July series comes to an end with market sentiment improving noticeably after a volatile first half of the month. Institutional buying returned in the final sessions, volatility cooled, and traders are now shifting their attention from monthly expiry mechanics to one of the biggest macro events of the quarter\u2014the <strong>U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision<\/strong> scheduled later tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">While the market has recovered from recent weakness, it would be premature to conclude that the next directional move has already begun. Expiry may be over, but the real catalyst is only hours away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Institutional Money Flow \u2013 A Mixed but Improving Picture<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">One of the most encouraging developments during the final trading session of the July series was the return of institutional buying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>FIIs turned net buyers by approximately \u20b92,982 crore.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>DIIs also remained net buyers with nearly \u20b9998 crore of purchases.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, traders should not ignore the broader picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Although the final session was positive, <strong>Foreign Institutional Investors are still net sellers for the July series<\/strong>, while Domestic Institutional Investors have absorbed most of the selling pressure through consistent accumulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">This tells us two things:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Domestic confidence remains intact.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Foreign investors have started reducing bearish positioning but are yet to become aggressively bullish.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The recent improvement is encouraging, but confirmation will depend on whether FII buying continues after the Fed announcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What PCR Is Telling Us<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) heading into expiry suggests that traders have gradually shifted away from extreme pessimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The options market is no longer displaying panic hedging. Instead, positioning reflects a more balanced outlook where participants are expecting movement rather than one-sided downside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">This typically creates conditions where the next major macro event\u2014not expiry itself\u2014determines direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">That event is now the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tonight&#8217;s Fed Decision \u2013 The Biggest Trigger<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Global investors are widely expecting the <strong>Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged<\/strong>, although markets remain highly sensitive to the policy statement and Chairman&#8217;s commentary regarding inflation and future rate expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">For Indian markets, traders should monitor three key aspects:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Any change in the Fed&#8217;s inflation outlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Future guidance regarding possible rate hikes or cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">The reaction of the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Historically, Indian equities often experience sharp moves during the first trading session following an important Fed meeting, especially when option positioning is relatively balanced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, Thursday&#8217;s opening could become significantly more important than Wednesday&#8217;s expiry itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Global Factors Worth Watching<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Apart from the Fed meeting, several external developments continue to influence market sentiment:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Crude oil remains volatile amid geopolitical tensions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">The Indian Rupee has strengthened recently as institutional flows improved.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Global bond yields remain sensitive to central bank commentary.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Foreign investors are closely watching inflation trends before increasing equity allocations again.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">These variables may decide whether the current rally extends or turns into another range-bound phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Astro-Market Perspective<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Financial markets are not driven by astrology alone, but many traders who follow astro-financial cycles closely will also be watching this week&#8217;s planetary developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Important astro observations include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">The <strong>Federal Reserve decision<\/strong> coincides with a period when markets often witness heightened volatility due to the convergence of major financial and celestial cycles.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">The Moon is transitioning into a new phase following recent lunar movements, often associated with emotional shifts among market participants.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Mercury has already completed its retrograde phase earlier this month, generally reducing communication-related uncertainty in financial markets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Rather than predicting direction, these periods are better viewed as <strong>volatility windows<\/strong>, where disciplined risk management becomes more valuable than aggressive forecasting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Traders Should Focus On<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Instead of predicting every move, traders should concentrate on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Protecting capital before chasing opportunity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Respecting stop losses during news-driven volatility.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Waiting for confirmation after the Fed announcement rather than reacting to the initial spike.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Monitoring institutional participation over the next two sessions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Strong trends usually require sustained institutional buying\u2014not just one positive expiry session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-67-1024x453.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-751\" srcset=\"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-67-1024x453.png 1024w, https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-67-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-67-768x340.png 768w, https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-67-1536x680.png 1536w, https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-67-660x292.png 660w, https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-67.png 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">1ST AUGUST IS IMPORTANT ASTRO EVENT DAY AS VENUS SATURN OPPOSITION WILL START IN KANYA\/MEENA RASHI AND WILL GO ON TILL 2ND SEP.<br><br>You can see in the chart above that this event has seen huge volatility and big moves in Nifty. We should keep this in focus when taking any position in market. <br><br><strong>This analysis is generated using our Planet Aspect Indicator available in Our Indicator Tab. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1402\" height=\"1122\" src=\"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image_2026-07-29_232949599.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-754\" srcset=\"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image_2026-07-29_232949599.png 1402w, https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image_2026-07-29_232949599-300x240.png 300w, https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image_2026-07-29_232949599-1024x819.png 1024w, https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image_2026-07-29_232949599-768x615.png 768w, https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image_2026-07-29_232949599-660x528.png 660w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1402px) 100vw, 1402px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-ae43825ad0cdff9dc4483220a9c7ea72 wp-block-paragraph\">24205 -24135 on NIFTY SPOT will act as a Trend Decider for whole month. You will witness that whenever price will come to this zone from top, it will find support and if broken on the down side, this range will act as an stiff resistance also. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Panchasutra View<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The July series has ended on a constructive note, but the market has not yet delivered a decisive breakout.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Institutional buying has improved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Options positioning has become healthier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Volatility has compressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Now the baton passes to the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">If the policy outcome aligns with market expectations and FIIs continue adding exposure, August could begin with renewed bullish momentum. However, any hawkish surprise could quickly reverse today&#8217;s optimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">As always, successful traders will not try to predict the market\u2014they will prepare for both outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-f37126da406669ebb79c181ec5fc493a wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Remember:<\/strong> <strong>In trading, preserving capital during uncertain events is often more profitable than making aggressive bets before the news. Patience is also a position.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The July series comes to an end with market sentiment improving noticeably after a volatile first half of the month. Institutional buying returned in the final sessions, volatility cooled, and traders are now shifting their attention from monthly expiry mechanics to one of the biggest macro events of the quarter\u2014the U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision\u2026 <span class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/?p=750\">Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-index-view"],"views":9,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/750","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=750"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/750\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":755,"href":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/750\/revisions\/755"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/panchasutra.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}